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Joe Biden, master oil trader

Lower oil prices have the opposite impact—limiting unconventional oil activity but benefiting other sectors that are sensitive to fuel costs. “Fundamentals do not matter to a new breed of oil speculator”, writes Gregory Meyer (2018). Veteran oil analyst Philip K. Verleger (2022) agrees, arguing that “oil prices in 2022 are being driven not by fundamentals but by those betting that prices will soon exceed $125, $150, or $200/bbl”. While the new investors could be instrumental in translating expected future fundamentals into current prices, excessive activity based on limited information may lead to a disconnect between the futures and physical markets. In particular, excessive activity by newcomers or herd behavior by investors may exaggerate the impact of concerns about current and future supply conditions at all points along the futures curve, including spot prices. oil profit Given that only about 5 percent of futures contracts are ever delivered as a physical product, increased uncertainty can encourage speculative behavior in the futures market.

Refining capacity growth

Oilfield companies are leveraging their digital capabilities to deliver high-margin, lower-carbon solutions to their customers. In Asia, J.P. Morgan sees some cross-currents for USD/JPY in 2025, with the Japanese yen likely finding a bottom following four consecutive years of underperformance. “Although divergence in the U.S. and Japan monetary policy suggests a modest decline in USD/JPY, it would not be powerful enough to push the pair significantly lower. On the other hand, structural factors including Japan’s weak productivity growth and negative real policy rate continue to limit the yen’s upside,” Chandan said. “Furthermore, excessive yen weakness is not acceptable for both U.S. and Japan policymakers. If yen depreciation accelerates, it would be countered by more hawkish yen-buying interventions.” Taking these factors into account, J.P.

What are the biggest companies in the Global Oil & Gas Exploration & Production industry?

John England is a global sector leader with Deloitte’s Oil, Gas, & Chemicals practice and a lead client service partner who works closely with some of the firm’s largest global energy clients to solve problems and enhance value. England brings a unique mix of commercial, risk management, operational, and financial knowledge gained throughout his career of more than 30 years in the energy industry. England previously served as the US Oil, Gas & Chemicals Leader across all businesses and also led the US energy trading and risk management practice. He helped organizations solve challenges related to business model, risk management, performance measurement, and related systems and processes. Profitability in the oil and gas sector is closely linked to commodity prices, which can considerably impact revenue. Regional divergences in inflation and policy rates could become prominent as a result.

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The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE), which tracks the performance of the largest oil and gas companies, is up more than 100% since Biden’s inauguration. That’s a 160% jump compared to the first three years of the pro-big-oil Trump administration, according to calculations by CNN. If OPEC+ countries are unsatisfied with the price of oil, it is in their interest to cut the supply of oil so that prices rise. However, no individual country actually wants to reduce supply, as this would mean reduced revenue.

Manufacturing slumped in major economies like Germany, where demand for industrial inputs like gasoil and naphtha remains subdued. Gains in 2025 will be dominated by naphtha, LPG, and ethane, driven by robust steam cracker margins and petrochemical capacity additions. OECD countries demand remained flat at 45.7 million b/d in 2024 and is expected to decrease slightly in 2025. Demand growth in non-OECD countries is projected at 821,000 b/d in 2024 and 1.16 million b/d in 2025. Reserve currencies offer an excellent way to take long-term crude oil exposure, with the economies of many nations leveraged closely to their energy resources. Oil companies and sector funds offer diverse industry exposure, with production, exploration, and oil service operations presenting different trends and opportunities.